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Euroland and US: Inflation falling

Wed, 20 Aug 2008 06:19:20 GMT

The rapid increase in food and energy prices over the past year has boosted headline inflation in both Euroland and the US to levels not seen since the early 1990s. Speculation concerning the outlook for inflation given recent oil price developments has proliferated. In the following discussion we try to assess the direct impact on future inflation of three oil price scenarios and the implications for monetary policy. Euroland and US: Inflation falling

Japan: Rates unchanged, slightly softer view

Wed, 20 Aug 2008 02:20:40 GMT

Bank of Japan (BoJ) as expected left its leading interest rate unchanged at todays monetary meeting and softened its view on the economy slightly. We still expect BoJ to keep its interest rate unchanged for the next year. Japan: Rates unchanged, slightly softer view

FX Pole: ZEW Economic Sentiment

Tue, 19 Aug 2008 14:05:27 GMT

Bank of Japan kept its target rate at 0.50% at this morning’s rate announcement as widely expected.Yesterday we initiated a short EURNOK-strategy. NOK has strengthened in spite of falling oil prices and there is at the same time still risks of another hike from the Norwegian central bank.South Africa: We buy EURZAR before today’s GDP-data. read more :

CD - Crop prices rose sharply

Tue, 19 Aug 2008 09:48:37 GMT

Oil below USD 112. Crop prices rose sharply yesterday. Soy beans met resistance. We see potential for setback within the trading range. CD - Crop prices rose sharply

CD - Oil unchanged

Mon, 18 Aug 2008 17:19:56 GMT

Storm and announcement from Iran supports the oil price. Crops show wide price fluctuations. CD - Oil unchanged

IMM positioning: Specs imply belief in further dollar rise

Mon, 18 Aug 2008 13:46:51 GMT

Speculative investors increase expectations that the EUR will continue its slide against USD. Generally, speculative FX positions imply an expectation of a broad-based USD appreciation against other G10 currencies. IMM positioning: Specs imply belief in further dollar rise

Weekly Credit Update

Mon, 18 Aug 2008 13:35:57 GMT

Secondary spreads continue to be relatively stable and range-bound. In the primary market we saw more issuance from financial institutions. IMF published a comment on the Swedish financial system in which it concluded that it is sound, albeit risks have increased. ECB published its quarterly survey on bank lending standards, and the net tightening has levelled off at a high level. Weekly Credit Update

Weekly Focus 34

Mon, 18 Aug 2008 13:34:24 GMT

Weak growth in Euroland Our worst fears were confirmed by the past week’s data for the European economy. Growth in Euroland is clearly on the way down, even allowing for some of the high level of activity in Q1 being due to temporary fac-tors (such as good winter weather for the construction industry and stockbuilding) that were partially re-versed in Q2. Weekly Focus 34

Emerging Markets Weekly

Mon, 18 Aug 2008 09:47:59 GMT

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FX Pole: Speculators increased their USD-positions

Mon, 18 Aug 2008 09:36:53 GMT

China: Investment accelerates slightly going into Q3

Sun, 17 Aug 2008 23:39:07 GMT

July's investment data were better than expected and showed that real investment demand is accelerating slightly going into Q3. Together with the very strong retail figures the investmemnt data indicate that domestic demand is currently holding up quite well despite export growth slowing. China: Investment accelerates slightly going into Q3

Growth concerns are back

Fri, 15 Aug 2008 12:54:10 GMT

Easing inflation and a deteriorating growth outlook is expected produce lower yields and steeper curves throughout the year - both in Europe and the US. Growth concerns are back

FX forecast update: On the brink of a global recession

Fri, 15 Aug 2008 12:51:15 GMT

The dollar is likely to perform well in the coming months, as expectations of a global recession are set to rise. We have lowered our forecast for EUR/USD to 1.40 in the coming year from 1.50. We have also cut our forecasts for AUD and NZD further. We expect the yen to perform well, together with CHF, but look for SEK, NOK and GBP to fall in the coming months. FX forecast update: On the brink of a global recession

CD - Commodities in negative territory – once again

Fri, 15 Aug 2008 12:50:07 GMT

Profit-taking on copper. Commodities once again in negative territory after small breather. CD - Commodities in negative territory – once again

FX Pole: A one-way street on the USD

Fri, 15 Aug 2008 07:08:59 GMT

� * Yesterday data showed that that Euro Zone GDP fell by 0.2% in the second quarter of 2008 – the first contraction in the economy since the Euro was introduced almost 10 years ago * Inflation? No no, that was last week! * Today’s main events: Unemployment (TRY), Empire state index (USD), TIC flows (USD) � read more: (0.1 MB)

US: high inflation to keep the Fed confined

Fri, 15 Aug 2008 05:58:01 GMT

Consumer prices were once again significantly higher than expected. Core inflation was pushed higher by core goods prices while a jump in energy prices boosted headline inflation as the impact from falling energy prices does not yet feed into the data. US: high inflation to keep the Fed confined

CD - Inventories sent up the oil price

Thu, 14 Aug 2008 12:14:06 GMT

Oil on the rebound after release of oil inventories. This created a positive sentiment for commodities. Crops in very positive territory. We recommend investor to take profit on soy beans having reached our target level yesterday. CD - Inventories sent up the oil price

FX Pole: The pound knocked down

Thu, 14 Aug 2008 09:30:18 GMT

* The pound ended up in the centre of attention after BoE made the inflation report public. * Consumer prices from the Eurozone and the US are due today. * EM: A busy day ahead (and not only at the Olympics) read more: (0.1 MB)

US: Rebate boost fading

Thu, 14 Aug 2008 08:14:15 GMT

Growth in core retail sales (ex. gasoline, autos and building materials) declined in July, indicating that the boost to private spending growth from the tax rebates is fading gradually. US: Rebate boost fading

BoE August Inflation Report shakes markets

Thu, 14 Aug 2008 05:18:58 GMT

BoE revised its growth path downwards and the inflation path upwards. Although some revisions were expected, markets were surprised how negative the report was and also how downbeat BoE Governor King was at the following press conference. BoE August Inflation Report shakes markets

IMM positioning: Speculative net long USD positions increased

Wed, 13 Aug 2008 23:20:57 GMT

Speculative behaviour in FX markets shows that investors have increased their belief in a broad-based strengthening of USD. In the week 22-29 July, speculative net positions in all major currencies against USD were either reduced or turned into net short positions. Net EUR positions, which turned short last week, were reduced slightly. The net position is still close to neutral, suggesting that speculative investors do not anticipate a large and imminent fall in EUR/USD. The implied ...